The report is a result of the Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health
Expenditure (AHEAD) project within the EC 6th Framework programme. The objective of
the research was to present the model of future health care system revenues and
expenditures in selected Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) which are now
the New EU Member States, and to discuss projection assumptions and results. Selected
countries include Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The projections are
based on methodology adopted in the International Labour Organization (ILO) Social
Budget model. The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in
health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the
labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are
examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will
increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit.
Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to
possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to
balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors
(demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures.
Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered
by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of
the sector and within the sector.