The work on scenarios of the cellule prospective began during latter stages of Jacques Delors’
leadership of the European Commission. The purpose of the endeavour was to arrive at
scenarios that would provide a series of coherent and plausible images of how Europe may
have developed towards the end of the first decade of the new century, seen from the
perspective of 2010.
Several defining criteria were chosen as starting points for the work (8) of building up each
scenario: the development of institutions and governance; social cohesion; economic
adaptability; EU-enlargement and the international context. The group bundled together a
number of variables relating to potential scenarios and allocated them to various topics. After
a series of interviews, decision-makers from the Commission and other EU institutions were
brought together in workshops to develop alternative scenarios. They finally arrived at five
scenarios, which they considered to sum up the spectrum of possibilities, factors and players
that could play a crucial role in shaping future developments. Each of these scenarios is
allocated a name and given a corresponding image.