This research report represents another part of our contribution to matching the
established expertise of UK financial services with the opportunities and challenges
of the world’s largest and most vibrant emerging markets. The report has a number
of unique features.
First, it is built around an exercise in scenario analysis. Three alternative visions of
the possible development of each country up to 2015 and how these might produce
changes in the relationship of each to the rest of the world were constructed by our
consultants, St Andrews Management Institute and Oxford Analytica. Each set of
scenarios consists of a base case in which the current pace of growth is maintained,
and alternative cases in which change is either retarded or accelerated by the
interplay of economic forces and political developments.
Second, the scenarios were explicitly constructed to examine the scale and nature of
financial services developments that each would produce and to assess the
opportunities and challenges that could arise for the City as a global provider of all of
the major types of financial services and products.
Finally, the research was carried out by asking the City itself what it thought of these
visions of the future.