The report is a result of the Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health
Expenditure (AHEAD) project within the EC 6th Framework programme. The objective of
the research was to present the model of future health care system revenues and
expenditures in Poland and to discuss projection assumptions and results. The projections
are based on methodology adopted in the International Labour Organization (ILO) Social
Budget model. The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in
health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the
labour market participation and their impact on the health care system revenues are
examined. Impact of demography on the health care system financial balanced is
examined in four different scenarios: baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario,
different longevity scenario and diversified employment rates scenario. Results indicate
dynamic and systematic increase of the health expenditures in the next 30 years.
Afterwards the dynamics of this process is foreseen to slow down. Despite the increase of
the revenues of the health care system, the system will face deficit in the close future. This
holds for each scenario, however the size of the deficit differs depending on longevity and
labour market participation assumptions. Results lead to a discussion on possible reforms
of the health care system.

Publish Date:
CASE Network Center for Social and Economic Research Warsaw

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