The four Primary Care 2025 scenarios developed by IAF and described in this report include a scenario for
primary care from the “zone of conventional expectation” (Scenario 1); a scenario for primary care from “zone of
growing desperation” (Scenario 2); and two scenarios from the “zone of high aspiration” (Scenarios 3 and 4). At
the September 2011 national workshop, participants reviewed the Primary Care 2025 scenarios and provided their
insights and recommendations which are summarized in this document.
As noted, the Primary Care 2025 scenarios deal with key forces shaping primary care and provide a range of futures
for 2025. They cannot, given the limitations of time and resources for this project, deal with all related aspects
and issues for primary care. Thus, for example, these scenarios do not provide detailed numerical forecasts for the
primary care workforce in 2025, though we reviewed many extrapolative forecasts in the literature. Instead, this
report forecasts the different types of primary care teams in the various delivery settings for primary care in 2025.
There are other areas worthy of more extensive futures exploration that relate to primary care, including health
professional education, specific disease-related demand forecasts, effectiveness and quantitative estimates of the
impact of prevention on demand, and quantitative estimates of the areas where care by digital coaches or similar
tools would affect demand. Although these topics emerged as important during the development of the Primary Care
2025 scenarios, this report does not address them in depth