The structure for the scenarios was derived by identifying two factors that will clearly have a major influence on world trade over the next decade: the availability of natural resources, and the willingness of global organisations to coordinate their actions (see diagram). The first scenario (‘Global innovation’), for example, considers the situation for trade in a world where resources are scarce, but where there is a high degree of coordination between international organisations; while in the third scenario (‘Fragile alliances’), resource availability is high while global coordination is low.

Publish Date:
2009
Publisher:
Foresight - Government Office for Science
Language:
English
Type:
Text

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