For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business
decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent
scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on
energy and the environment.
But the financial crash, the deepest economic slump in 70 years, and a patchy and
fragile recovery have changed the world dramatically. We must consider how these
events may or may not have altered our energy outlooks. Signals & Signposts offers
our best understanding about the changes brought by the global financial and
Internally, we have been using Recession & Recovery scenarios since September
2008. The two outlooks -- Severe-yet-Sharp and Deeper-and-Longer – have, so far,
bracketed actual developments. We have also drawn on a supplementary but
unlikely scenario, Depression 2.0. These scenarios continue to provide useful
insights and we draw on them in this booklet.
Despite the economic turbulence, the fundamental drivers and uncertainties explored
in our Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 remain fully relevant.
Signals & Signposts highlights significant additional factors and should be read as
a companion to our Scramble and Blueprints energy scenarios, which can be
downloaded from http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html . An overview is in the Appendix.