Primary Care 2025: A Scenario Exploration is a project developed by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF)
with support from the Kresge Foundation to consider the range of forces, challenges, and opportunities shaping
primary care in the United States. Complex change comes as new technologies meet an aging society in a time
of growing economic and political divides. This is not a time for reactive decisions based only on a view of past
trends in health care. The inherently uncertain future of primary care in a time of great flux means that a systemic
understanding of future possibilities is all the more important for informing what we do today and tomorrow.
With the advice and assistance of numerous experts around the country, IAF staff developed four Primary Care 2025
scenarios using the “Aspirational Futures” technique that IAF has developed over the last three decades. The four
scenarios explore the different deployment of these advances along with parallel social and economic conditions along
likely (Scenario 1), challenging (Scenario 2) and visionary (Scenarios 3 and 4) paths to the future. These scenarios are
described in this document and are now freely available at http://www.altfutures.org/primarycare2025.