Discover scenarios

We construct a public debt risk matrix that
ranks countries with respect to the risks stemming from debt levels
as well as from debt structures. In Chapter 3 we use our new
scenario framework, which explicitly takes a government‟s debt
structure into account, to project public debt dynamics over the next
ten years. In the baseline scenario we assume a policy of fiscal
consolidation, with the consolidation pace varying across countries.
In the “no-policy-change” scenario we project the debt levels that

Every scenario project has a focal question —
a broad yet strategic query that serves as an
anchor for the scenarios. For this project, the
focal question was:
How might technology affect barriers to
building resilience and equitable growth
in the developing world over the next
15 to 20 years?
In other words, what new or existing
technologies could be leveraged to improve
the capacity of individuals, communities,
and systems to respond to major changes, or
what technologies could improve the lives of

The Global Scenarios to
2025 are structured around
both pre-determined trends
and critical uncertainties.
The predetermined trends
are common across each of
the three of the scenarios.
The critical uncertainties,
which overlay the relatively
certain trends, are used to
build credible alternative
visions of what the future may
hold. The contrasting ways in
which these uncertainties are
resolved critically shape the
alternative scenarios for the
global business environment.

The companion to the research reported here, Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use, explores
the broader strategic frame for developing and utilizing scenarios in support of climate decision making.
STUDY DESIGN
The scenarios in this report were developed using integrated assessment models (IAMs). These analysis capabilities integrate
computer models of socioeconomic and technological determinants of the emissions of GHGs with models of the natural science