Discover scenarios

Outsights was retained by the UK’s Department for International Development to
develop a number of scenarios for the future of the very poorest, to stimulate new
thinking and to look for ways in which the future can be changed. An implicit
assumption behind the focus on the very poorest is that even if the Millennium
Development Goals are reached by 2015, many of the poorest will miss out
entirely or remain in serious poverty.
A wide and varied group of 70 stakeholders from 10 countries participated in the

Two scenarios have been considered
in this briefing :
1. Advanced international
policies scenario (AIP)
The assumptions in this scenario are based on
ambitious growth rates for renewable energy
sources that need additional support measures
in order to be reached.Dynamic current policies scenario (DCP)
Dynamic current policies does not mean “business as
usual”. Assuming that a “business as usual” is seen as
impossible for a sustainable future by a lot of decision

We construct a public debt risk matrix that
ranks countries with respect to the risks stemming from debt levels
as well as from debt structures. In Chapter 3 we use our new
scenario framework, which explicitly takes a government‟s debt
structure into account, to project public debt dynamics over the next
ten years. In the baseline scenario we assume a policy of fiscal
consolidation, with the consolidation pace varying across countries.
In the “no-policy-change” scenario we project the debt levels that

Strategic Trends provides a measure of context and coherence in an
uncertain predictive area characterized by risk, ambiguity and change.
The DCDC approach goes beyond identifying the potential future military threats to which
our Armed Forces will have to respond, and looks at the developments in areas that will
shape the wider strategic context within which Defence will have to interact. For example,
the Study addresses subjects such as: access to resources, the evolving international
system and developments in Society.