The Global Scenarios to
2025 are structured around
both pre-determined trends
and critical uncertainties.
The predetermined trends
are common across each of
the three of the scenarios.
The critical uncertainties,
which overlay the relatively
certain trends, are used to
build credible alternative
visions of what the future may
hold. The contrasting ways in
which these uncertainties are
resolved critically shape the
alternative scenarios for the
global business environment.
The trends to 2025 that
can be predicted with
some degree of confidence
are those involving
demographics, globalisation
and key geo-political actors.
Over the scenario horizon,
the world’s population is
set to increase from around
6 billion to 8 billion, with
almost all of the growth
occurring in developing
countries. This will further
reinforce the growing
contribution that developing
countries are making to
the world economy. At the
same time, the increased
globalisation of recent
decades – made possible
by market liberalisation and
technological advances
– will be virtually impossible
to reverse. This trend has
enabled a significant rise
in living standards and has
helped many – but not all –
developing countries to begin
closing the gap in living
standards with industrialised
countries. Going forward,
the key geo-political actors
will be the United States
and China. Reflecting the
economic rise of Asia, the
global business environment
will more likely be shaped
by relationships across the
Pacific than over the Atlantic.

Publish Date:
Shell International