This economic growth was mainly driven by a two-speed world economy in which
populous emerging markets, such as China and India, were growing at more than 10%
and 8%, respectively. As a result, an economic shift in gravity away from OECD
countries to Asia is already on its way. This high economic growth has resulted in an
unprecedented demand for ultimately depletable natural resources. With population levels
rising from the current 6.6 billion people to an estimated 8.0 billion people by 2025, it is
evident that change is inevitable and that many stress points are likely to emerge in the
future global environment.
Given this background, when developing the scenarios the following two focal questions
− How can the world attain a high level of sustainable economic growth given the
rapidly changing geopolitical landscape of the early 21st century?
− What will the balance of power look like in 2025 and to what degree might
collaborative policies and frameworks shape the global context?
Based on an exploration of these central questions against the backdrop of the critical uncertainties, three scenarios emerge for Global Scenarios 2025. The different journeys the world takes to 2025 are represented below.

Publish Date:
National Intelligence Council