The three scenarios are clearly larger than the sum of their parts, as no one expert in the group could have drawn them as they are on his own. Yet participants could find a trace of their thinking reflected throughout the complex intellectual mosaic incorporated into the final product. What I particularly like about the scenarios is that they challenge the conventional thinking on Russia by suggesting that an authoritarian rule can produce a successful economic revival, that a grassroots movement can break the power of the current political elite, that Russia’s stagnation could lead to a catastrophic degeneration, that regional developments can force political changes in Moscow and many others. Even if these assumptions are unlikely to be accepted, they help a reader to think outside the box. The scenarios also offer valuable recommendations on the implications which each outcome could have for U.S. policy.

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CGA Center for Global Affairs, New York University

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