Four main drivers appear to determine the future of European TCL industries: global competition, the extension
of the knowledge base, market changes, and environmental aspects. Using these drivers, three alternative
scenarios were developed by this study:
• Scenario 1 called “Globalisation limited” sees considerable effects from climate change. Rising environmental
costs will change the system of global trade and set new priorities for consumers, governments
and producers. TCL industries will become more European or even regional under these conditions.
• Scenario 2 called “Asian dominance – European excellence” assumes that emerging countries will
improve their specialisation in industrial manufacturing and the EU will strengthen its technological lead.
Production activities will largely disappear from European TCL industries but a great need for technical
specialists and natural scientists will emerge.
• Scenario 3 called “Advanced New Member States” describes how the European Union and low-cost
countries among the Member States are going to defend the industrial basis in Europe. Facing the
strongly negative effects of globalisation on manufacturing employment (and TCL employment in particular),
a comprehensive policy programme aims to revive industrial jobs.
All three scenarios result in a further decline of employment. However, the “Advanced New Member States”
scenario shows returns in terms of the number of jobs by the end of the scenario horizon.

Publish Date:
European Commission

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