The Future of the Tertiary Education Sector:Scenarios for a Learning Society

This paper presents scenarios for tertiary education twenty years or so from now. On the
basis of these stories about the broad tertiary sector, the paper closes with some
speculation on the possible role(s) of these institutions in the long-run future. The
scenarios are not predictions, nor forecasts of what is likely to happen. Rather they are
stories that evoke a range of possible futures. Exploring a multiplicity of possible futures
opens up a bigger canvas for imagining what kind of future we want and which strategic

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Learning from the future : Scenarios for post-16 learning

We present four scenarios for the sector in 20 years’ time. They focus on the organisation of the sector and are driven by: the need to raise skills so that business can compete in the international market persistent market failure at the bottom end of the labour market continuing high levels of social exclusion. The scenarios are built around two forms of government
intervention – labour market regulation and increased public investment – and are structured round four themes mentioned earlier in our report:
skills priorities – the focus of the sector integration

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