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Foresight and Forward looking activities have
a long tradition in the European Commission.
Today several Directorates-General have
available the competencies or studies that
allow them to better seize the challenges of

For a species that prides itself on scientific
discovery, we know startlingly little about
the resource that is most crucial to our
survival: water. 11
This lack of understanding applies not just
to the layperson who unquestioningly

The world is increasingly turning its attention to the issue of water scarcity. Many countries
face water scarcity as a fundamental challenge to their economic and social development; by

For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business
decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent
scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on
energy and the environment.

The Global Scenarios to
2025 released in 2005
build on this foundation
to develop an enhanced,
robust methodology that
addresses a broader
range of strategic and
planning needs across
the whole spectrum of
relevant time horizons

Time horizon
• What could shape the
future: uncertainties
and certainties
• Two certainties:
– Shipping will continue
to be part
of the transportation
matrix
– Fresh that water will
become more
valuable

The Global Scenarios to
2025 are structured around
both pre-determined trends
and critical uncertainties.
The predetermined trends
are common across each of
the three of the scenarios.
The critical uncertainties,
which overlay the relatively

The middle class get a lot of attention, particularly in
developed economies. They are held up frequently as the
engine of growth, the bastion of social values and the
arbiter of elections. And in many countries, the
commentary increasingly paints the picture of an

The structure for the scenarios was derived by identifying two factors that will clearly have a major influence on world trade over the next decade: the availability of natural resources, and the willingness of global organisations to coordinate their actions (see diagram).

Strategic Trends provides a measure of context and coherence in an
uncertain predictive area characterized by risk, ambiguity and change.
The DCDC approach goes beyond identifying the potential future military threats to which