Public Debt in 2020: Monitoring fiscal risks in developed markets

We construct a public debt risk matrix that
ranks countries with respect to the risks stemming from debt levels
as well as from debt structures. In Chapter 3 we use our new
scenario framework, which explicitly takes a government‟s debt
structure into account, to project public debt dynamics over the next
ten years. In the baseline scenario we assume a policy of fiscal
consolidation, with the consolidation pace varying across countries.
In the “no-policy-change” scenario we project the debt levels that

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Public debt in 2020: Structure Matters! A new scenario tool applied to Latin America

In our baseline scenario the LatAm-7 public-debt-to-GDP ratio is
predicted to fall significantly over the outlook period 2010-20. As
regards individual countries, public-debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to decline in
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru, to remain broadly unchanged in
Colombia and to more than double in Venezuela.

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Public Debt 2020: A sustainability analysis for DM and EM economies

Our paper is structured as follows. In Chapter two, we shed some
light on the speed and magnitude of the recent deterioration in
public finances in DMs and EMs. In Chapter three, we gauge
possible future public debt dynamics (from 2010 to 2020) in a
baseline scenario as well as in four adverse shock scenarios. In the
first three shock scenarios, we consider adverse single-variable
shocks in the real GDP growth rate, the real interest rate, and the
primary balance, i.e. the fiscal balance before net debt interest

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