The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What will South Africa be like in the year 2002?

The scenario team met three times in a series of
three-day workshops at the Mont Fleur conference
center outside Cape Town. After considering many
possible stories, the participants agreed on four scenarios that they believed to be plausible and relevant:
• Ostrich, in which a negotiated settlement to
the crisis in South Africa is not achieved,
and the country’s government continues to
be non-representative
• Lame Duck, in which a settlement is
achieved but the transition to a new dispensation is slow and indecisive

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