Climate Change

Pathways to 2050: Energy and Climate Change builds on the WBCSD’s
2004 Facts and Trends to 2050: Energy and Climate Change and
provides a more detailed overview of potential pathways to reducing
CO2 emissions.
The pathways shown illustrate the scale and complexity of the
change needed, as well as the progress that has to be made through
to 2050. Our “checkpoint” in 2025 gives a measure of this progress
and demonstrates the urgency to act early to shift to a sustainable
emissions trajectory.

The 2010 Energy
[R]evolution not only includes the financial analysis and employment
calculations in parallel with the basic projections, we have also added
a second, more ambitious Energy [R]evolution scenario. This was
considered vital because rapid improvements in climate science made
it clear during 2009 that a global 50% reduction in energy related
CO2 emissions by 2050 might not be enough to keep the global mean
temperature rise below +2°C. An even greater reduction is needed if
runaway climate change is to be avoided.

An uncertain future means a range of plausible outcomes. Unlike previous research, including our own (for example, Nelson et al. 2009), which relied
on a single baseline scenario of GDP and population, this research uses three

The purpose of this report is to address the need for a simplified way to present and explain the
linkages between climate change and the various components.
To achieve this goal, this report was developed under the following guiding principles:
1. The analysis is based on the scientific evidence and conclusions from the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4).
1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Article 2
The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production: A 2020 Perspective - ii

Project aim: to explore the pressures on the global food system between now and 2050 and
identify the decisions that policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that
a global population rising to nine billion or more can be fed sustainably2 and equitably.
The global food system will experience an unprecedented confluence of pressures over the next
40 years. On the demand side, global population size will increase from nearly seven billion today to

Bellona has set out to show how to combat global warming. Across the economy, we have
searched for solutions that already are available or on the verge of becoming so. We have
analyzed findings from both scientific publications and various reports prepared by industry and
environmental organizations.
Bellona is certainly not the first to undertake such an effort; numerous studies have been
published by academics, think-tanks, environmental organizations and governments alike. The

WWF has a vision of a world that is
powered by 100 per cent renewable energy
sources by the middle of this century.
Unless we make this transition, the
world is most unlikely to avoid predicted
escalating impacts of climate change.
But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent
renewable energy supplies for everyone
on the planet by 2050? WWF called
upon the expertise of respected energy
consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer
to this question. In response, Ecofys has
produced a bold and ambitious scenario -

Time horizon
• What could shape the
future: uncertainties
and certainties
• Two certainties:
– Shipping will continue
to be part
of the transportation
matrix
– Fresh that water will
become more
valuable
• And a large number of
uncertainties

The companion to the research reported here, Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use, explores
the broader strategic frame for developing and utilizing scenarios in support of climate decision making.
STUDY DESIGN
The scenarios in this report were developed using integrated assessment models (IAMs). These analysis capabilities integrate
computer models of socioeconomic and technological determinants of the emissions of GHGs with models of the natural science

Strategic Trends provides a measure of context and coherence in an
uncertain predictive area characterized by risk, ambiguity and change.
The DCDC approach goes beyond identifying the potential future military threats to which
our Armed Forces will have to respond, and looks at the developments in areas that will
shape the wider strategic context within which Defence will have to interact. For example,
the Study addresses subjects such as: access to resources, the evolving international
system and developments in Society.