Scenarios for India and China 2015 - Implications for the City of London

This research report represents another part of our contribution to matching the
established expertise of UK financial services with the opportunities and challenges
of the world’s largest and most vibrant emerging markets. The report has a number
of unique features.
First, it is built around an exercise in scenario analysis. Three alternative visions of
the possible development of each country up to 2015 and how these might produce
changes in the relationship of each to the rest of the world were constructed by our

Subject and Keywords:

China 2020: Three scenarios

Scenario One: page 8
Fragmentation
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces escalating demands from a range of
actors who have slowly chipped away at its legitimacy and capacity. When faced
simultaneously with a major national disaster and an international crisis—during
a time of power transition—the CCP is unable to respond effectively and its very
survival is at risk.

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