The Global Scenarios to
2025 released in 2005
build on this foundation
to develop an enhanced,
robust methodology that
addresses a broader
range of strategic and
planning needs across
the whole spectrum of
relevant time horizons
and contexts.
Hence the transition that
has occurred from a threeyear
scenario cycle to
an annual one. This will
provide greater continuity
while also enabling
fl exible contributions to
Group processes for
identifying critical risks

For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business
decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent
scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on
energy and the environment.
But the financial crash, the deepest economic slump in 70 years, and a patchy and
fragile recovery have changed the world dramatically. We must consider how these
events may or may not have altered our energy outlooks. Signals & Signposts offers

This Future Report sketches out what the energy future
might hold and how forward looking businesses can
begin to take control.
The potential scenarios for the UK’s energy future that
are investigated include:
- Current Intent – what is happening now and if the
UK continues on the planned route
- New Dash for Gas – abundant shale gas supplies
combine with other factors to make gas the fuel
of choice
- Investment Shortfall – the fall out of high investment
uncertainty and ill-defined and poorly implemented
policies

decline within the next few years. In addition to the challenge of climate
change, we will soon have to contend with a rapidly growing deficit in fuels
for transport. This will cause big spikes in energy prices – including natural
gas and electricity – with potentially devastating economic and social impacts.
This has severe implications for the provision of services by local government.
This issue is usually described as ‘peak oil’. It is rarely acknowledged
by national governments, but is rapidly gaining credibility among local

Since 2006, researchers at UKERC have been working together on an ambitious
project assessing how the UK can move to a resilient (‘secure’) and low-carbon
energy system over the period to 2050. This report synthesises the project
findings. A more extended account of the project will be published in book form in
early 2010.
The Energy 2050 project brought together a wide range of researchers coming
from several disciplines to address a common problem, exploring all dimensions of

The CCC commissioned this report to examine the challenges involved in deploying
significant power generation capacity with CCS in the UK through two scenarios – one of
10GW by 2030 and the second of 20GW by the same date.
It begins with a review of the current state of CCS development, the role and design of
demonstration schemes and an overview of current demonstration initiatives. It then
moves on to examine the practical time dimensions likely to be encountered by project

The City of Holland recognizes that our world will be facing critical energy challenges in the coming
years. The City also recognizes that with these challenges come opportunities. The City must find ways
to reduce their dependence on foreign energy and fossil fuels, improve efficiency and costs, enhance
sustainability and expand energy sources and systems. Holland is committed to be a highly-competitive
world-class community, supported by innovative energy solutions that benefit the citizens, the business

The Scenarios for the Russian Federation were developed through a strategic dialogue process engaging over 350 business, policy and academic leaders throughout 2012. The scenarios report focuses on possible future pathways for the Russian economy and pays particular attention to three critical uncertainties: ongoing evolutions in the global energy landscape, the quality of Russia's domestic institutional environment and dynamics of social cohesion within the country.

Three growth scenarios
– Low: All reactors operate to end of current licenses
• No new renewals, no new builds
– Medium: Maintain 20% share of electricity production
• All reactors in the current fleet operates for sixty years
– High: Nuclear grows to 50% share by 2050

..How the energy scene might impact business through to 2020. The group framed and created plausible "roads" ahead posing a specific challenge to corporate leaders. "The Same roads" Bau, The Long Road undersgoes a significant shift in economic, goepolitical and energy centres of gravity, "The broken road" ... severe events hat overturns established systems, "The Fast Road" reasoned decisions and investments avout energy and cliamte ad made early