The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model

In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the
horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of
world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a
“base case” which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world
energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with
scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas

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