To help the Dutch gas sector to prepare itself for the next fifty years, what is a robust long-term sustainable strategy?
In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the
horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of
world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a
“base case” which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world
energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with
scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas