In recent years, an increasing number of non-OECD countries have become sizable exporters of manufactures, in which there is now a flourishing two-way trade with OECD countries; it accounts for a large portion of the growth in commerce.

On January 1, 2000 the global economy was peaking, with booming stock and labor markets.
The Internet was changing everything from how consumers bought insurance to how aircraft
manufacturers bought supplies. Then, the dot com boom quickly went bust and terrorists

The world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3% per annum from 2011 to 2050, doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again by 2050.

For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business
decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent
scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on
energy and the environment.

Sweeping changes are afoot
in the global economy. As the second
decade of the 21st century unfolds and
the world exits from the 2008–09 financial crisis,
the growing clout of emerging markets is paving
the way for a world economy with an increasingly

We construct a public debt risk matrix that
ranks countries with respect to the risks stemming from debt levels
as well as from debt structures. In Chapter 3 we use our new
scenario framework, which explicitly takes a government‟s debt

The Global Scenarios to
2025 released in 2005
build on this foundation
to develop an enhanced,
robust methodology that
addresses a broader
range of strategic and
planning needs across
the whole spectrum of
relevant time horizons

Time horizon
• What could shape the
future: uncertainties
and certainties
• Two certainties:
– Shipping will continue
to be part
of the transportation
matrix
– Fresh that water will
become more
valuable

The Global Scenarios to
2025 are structured around
both pre-determined trends
and critical uncertainties.
The predetermined trends
are common across each of
the three of the scenarios.
The critical uncertainties,
which overlay the relatively

The structure for the scenarios was derived by identifying two factors that will clearly have a major influence on world trade over the next decade: the availability of natural resources, and the willingness of global organisations to coordinate their actions (see diagram).