The Oxford Scenarios: Beyond the Financial Crisis - Scenarios for Growth & Health

Our ‘Beyond the Financial Crisis’ scenario project started life as
a voluntary collaboration of a small group of participants from
the second Oxford Futures Forum held in April 2008 (Oxford
Futures Forum, April 2008)1
. As we continued to exchange
ideas about scenarios and sense-making, we began to use the
unfolding financial crisis as a common point of reference. Although
we represent different traditions in scholarship and different
experiences in practice, our collective willingness to adopt a

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Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

Never before has humanity faced such a challenging outlook for
energy and the planet. This can be summed up in five words:
“more energy, less carbon dioxide”.
To help think about the future of energy, we have developed two scenarios that
describe alternative ways it may develop. In the first scenario – called Scramble –
policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight.
Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major

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Global Scenarios to 2025

This economic growth was mainly driven by a two-speed world economy in which
populous emerging markets, such as China and India, were growing at more than 10%
and 8%, respectively. As a result, an economic shift in gravity away from OECD
countries to Asia is already on its way. This high economic growth has resulted in an
unprecedented demand for ultimately depletable natural resources. With population levels
rising from the current 6.6 billion people to an estimated 8.0 billion people by 2025, it is

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Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

Every scenario project has a focal question —
a broad yet strategic query that serves as an
anchor for the scenarios. For this project, the
focal question was:
How might technology affect barriers to
building resilience and equitable growth
in the developing world over the next
15 to 20 years?
In other words, what new or existing
technologies could be leveraged to improve
the capacity of individuals, communities,
and systems to respond to major changes, or
what technologies could improve the lives of

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In safe hands? The future of Financial Services

“Whenwillwe knowour financial systemisworking?” is one of the questions underlying Long
Finance’s goal to improve society’s understanding and use of finance over the long term. In contrast to
the short-termismthat defines today’s economic views, 40 years is only themediumtermfor the Long
Finance initiative.
40 years is however, beyondmost normal planning periods. Scenario planning can usefully be deployed
to try and answer questions about the future that cannot be answeredwith normal forecasting

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