The Oxford Scenarios: Beyond the Financial Crisis - Scenarios for Growth & Health

Our ‘Beyond the Financial Crisis’ scenario project started life as
a voluntary collaboration of a small group of participants from
the second Oxford Futures Forum held in April 2008 (Oxford
Futures Forum, April 2008)1
. As we continued to exchange
ideas about scenarios and sense-making, we began to use the
unfolding financial crisis as a common point of reference. Although
we represent different traditions in scholarship and different
experiences in practice, our collective willingness to adopt a

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The Future of Money

To apprehend the future money landscape, we can try to identify what could
be called “core alternatives”. These are not full-fledged and internally consistent
scenarios but narrow beams into the future, structured around a simple hypothesis.
Three such alternatives can be identified:
• The private currencies alternative.
• The global currency alternative.
• The market nexus alternative

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Euro, Dollar, Yuan Uncertainties - Scenarios on the Future of the International Monetary System

This report explores the critical uncertainties underlying the future international roles of the euro, the dollar and the yuan and how different responses to them by policy makers in each of these currency areas may create challenging scenarios for the international monetary system in 2030.

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What the future holds: Insurance 2020

On January 1, 2000 the global economy was peaking, with booming stock and labor markets.
The Internet was changing everything from how consumers bought insurance to how aircraft
manufacturers bought supplies. Then, the dot com boom quickly went bust and terrorists
attacked the World Trade Center. After an extended slump, western economies recovered
from these shocks and reached new peaks in mid-2007, only to crash again in the most severe
economic downturn since the Great Depression. Unlike previous cycles, emerging economies

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Forthcoming: The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets

Computer based trading has transformed how our financial markets operate. The volume of financial products traded through computer automated trading taking place at high speed and with little human involvement has increased dramatically in the past few years. For example, today, over one third of United Kingdom equity trading volume is generated through high frequency automated computer trading while in the US this figure is closer to three-quarters.

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Multipolarity: The New Global Economy - Global Development Horizons 2011

Sweeping changes are afoot
in the global economy. As the second
decade of the 21st century unfolds and
the world exits from the 2008–09 financial crisis,
the growing clout of emerging markets is paving
the way for a world economy with an increasingly
multipolar character. The distribution of global
growth will become more diffuse, with no single
country dominating the global economic scene.
The seeds of this change were planted some
time ago. Over the past two decades, the world

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Public Debt in 2020: Monitoring fiscal risks in developed markets

We construct a public debt risk matrix that
ranks countries with respect to the risks stemming from debt levels
as well as from debt structures. In Chapter 3 we use our new
scenario framework, which explicitly takes a government‟s debt
structure into account, to project public debt dynamics over the next
ten years. In the baseline scenario we assume a policy of fiscal
consolidation, with the consolidation pace varying across countries.
In the “no-policy-change” scenario we project the debt levels that

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Public debt in 2020: Structure Matters! A new scenario tool applied to Latin America

In our baseline scenario the LatAm-7 public-debt-to-GDP ratio is
predicted to fall significantly over the outlook period 2010-20. As
regards individual countries, public-debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to decline in
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru, to remain broadly unchanged in
Colombia and to more than double in Venezuela.

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Scenarios for India and China 2015 - Implications for the City of London

This research report represents another part of our contribution to matching the
established expertise of UK financial services with the opportunities and challenges
of the world’s largest and most vibrant emerging markets. The report has a number
of unique features.
First, it is built around an exercise in scenario analysis. Three alternative visions of
the possible development of each country up to 2015 and how these might produce
changes in the relationship of each to the rest of the world were constructed by our

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