In recent years, an increasing number of non-OECD countries have become sizable exporters of manufactures, in which there is now a flourishing two-way trade with OECD countries; it accounts for a large portion of the growth in commerce. The same trend is observed in capital flows, with an ever-larger share of OECD private foreign investment destined for non-member countries.
The world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3% per annum from 2011 to 2050, doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again by 2050.
China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rate terms. India should become the third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil, which we expect to move up to 4th place ahead of Japan.
On January 1, 2000 the global economy was peaking, with booming stock and labor markets.
The Internet was changing everything from how consumers bought insurance to how aircraft
manufacturers bought supplies. Then, the dot com boom quickly went bust and terrorists
attacked the World Trade Center. After an extended slump, western economies recovered
from these shocks and reached new peaks in mid-2007, only to crash again in the most severe
economic downturn since the Great Depression. Unlike previous cycles, emerging economies
Sweeping changes are afoot
in the global economy. As the second
decade of the 21st century unfolds and
the world exits from the 2008–09 financial crisis,
the growing clout of emerging markets is paving
the way for a world economy with an increasingly
multipolar character. The distribution of global
growth will become more diffuse, with no single
country dominating the global economic scene.
The seeds of this change were planted some
time ago. Over the past two decades, the world
The Great Recession of 2008–2010 has expanded the ranks and deepened the suffering of
vulnerable populations. Prior to this recession there were mixed signals—some populations
were doing better, while others remained marginal in their income and in their access
to employment, food, effective education and health care. So much change in just a
few years is a reminder that there is no single, certain future to plan for. There are many
plausible alternative futures, and planning for just one set of assumed future circumstances
The structure for the scenarios was derived by identifying two factors that will clearly have a major influence on world trade over the next decade: the availability of natural resources, and the willingness of global organisations to coordinate their actions (see diagram).
We construct a public debt risk matrix that
ranks countries with respect to the risks stemming from debt levels
as well as from debt structures. In Chapter 3 we use our new
scenario framework, which explicitly takes a government‟s debt
structure into account, to project public debt dynamics over the next
ten years. In the baseline scenario we assume a policy of fiscal
consolidation, with the consolidation pace varying across countries.
In the “no-policy-change” scenario we project the debt levels that
The Global Scenarios to
2025 released in 2005
build on this foundation
to develop an enhanced,
robust methodology that
addresses a broader
range of strategic and
planning needs across
the whole spectrum of
relevant time horizons
Hence the transition that
has occurred from a threeyear
scenario cycle to
an annual one. This will
provide greater continuity
while also enabling
fl exible contributions to
Group processes for
identifying critical risks
The Global Scenarios to
2025 are structured around
both pre-determined trends
and critical uncertainties.
The predetermined trends
are common across each of
the three of the scenarios.
The critical uncertainties,
which overlay the relatively
certain trends, are used to
build credible alternative
visions of what the future may
hold. The contrasting ways in
which these uncertainties are
resolved critically shape the
alternative scenarios for the
global business environment.
• What could shape the
• Two certainties:
– Shipping will continue
to be part
of the transportation
– Fresh that water will
• And a large number of