Public Debt 2020: A sustainability analysis for DM and EM economies
Our paper is structured as follows. In Chapter two, we shed some
light on the speed and magnitude of the recent deterioration in
public finances in DMs and EMs. In Chapter three, we gauge
possible future public debt dynamics (from 2010 to 2020) in a
baseline scenario as well as in four adverse shock scenarios. In the
first three shock scenarios, we consider adverse single-variable
shocks in the real GDP growth rate, the real interest rate, and the
primary balance, i.e. the fiscal balance before net debt interest