Resources

Foresight and Forward looking activities have
a long tradition in the European Commission.
Today several Directorates-General have
available the competencies or studies that
allow them to better seize the challenges of
the future. The European Union Research 7th
Framework Programme integrates Foresight
and Forward looking activities within the thematic field “Socio-economic Sciences and
Humanities” (SSH).

The world is increasingly turning its attention to the issue of water scarcity. Many countries
face water scarcity as a fundamental challenge to their economic and social development; by
2030 over a third of the world population will be living in river basins that will have to cope
with significant water stress, including many of the countries and regions that drive global
economic growth.
Across the globe, policy makers, civil society and the business sector are increasingly

For a species that prides itself on scientific
discovery, we know startlingly little about
the resource that is most crucial to our
survival: water. 11
This lack of understanding applies not just
to the layperson who unquestioningly
consumes water. But also to the scientists,
academics, businesspeople and
policymakers who study water for a living.
“To make any progress, we experts must first admit our
own ignorance,” says John Cronin, Director and CEO of The
Beacon Institute for Rivers and Estuaries. “We don’t know

The structure for the scenarios was derived by identifying two factors that will clearly have a major influence on world trade over the next decade: the availability of natural resources, and the willingness of global organisations to coordinate their actions (see diagram).

The middle class get a lot of attention, particularly in
developed economies. They are held up frequently as the
engine of growth, the bastion of social values and the
arbiter of elections. And in many countries, the
commentary increasingly paints the picture of an
embattled and shrinking middle class, fighting against a
rising tide of inequality.
Within much of the developed world, parts of this picture
are justified and the last decade has seen income
disparities increase in a range of places. But globally, the

The Global Scenarios to
2025 released in 2005
build on this foundation
to develop an enhanced,
robust methodology that
addresses a broader
range of strategic and
planning needs across
the whole spectrum of
relevant time horizons
and contexts.
Hence the transition that
has occurred from a threeyear
scenario cycle to
an annual one. This will
provide greater continuity
while also enabling
fl exible contributions to
Group processes for
identifying critical risks

The Global Scenarios to
2025 are structured around
both pre-determined trends
and critical uncertainties.
The predetermined trends
are common across each of
the three of the scenarios.
The critical uncertainties,
which overlay the relatively
certain trends, are used to
build credible alternative
visions of what the future may
hold. The contrasting ways in
which these uncertainties are
resolved critically shape the
alternative scenarios for the
global business environment.

Time horizon
• What could shape the
future: uncertainties
and certainties
• Two certainties:
– Shipping will continue
to be part
of the transportation
matrix
– Fresh that water will
become more
valuable
• And a large number of
uncertainties

For 40 years, Shell has drawn on its scenarios to enhance business
decisions and its ability to respond to change. Our most recent
scenarios also contributed positively to the global public debate on
energy and the environment.
But the financial crash, the deepest economic slump in 70 years, and a patchy and
fragile recovery have changed the world dramatically. We must consider how these
events may or may not have altered our energy outlooks. Signals & Signposts offers

Strategic Trends provides a measure of context and coherence in an
uncertain predictive area characterized by risk, ambiguity and change.
The DCDC approach goes beyond identifying the potential future military threats to which
our Armed Forces will have to respond, and looks at the developments in areas that will
shape the wider strategic context within which Defence will have to interact. For example,
the Study addresses subjects such as: access to resources, the evolving international
system and developments in Society.